Lúcio

Lúcio (89 Base Icon) is listed at 1,820,000 coins, but the last 8 completed sales cleared at a median of 1,642,500. That is a 11% gap between what sellers are asking and what buyers are actually paying. Buy at the asking price and you would need the market to move 11% in your favour just to get back to level, before EA's 5% cut.

The card is thin: roughly 0.3 sales an hour, with 3 buy-now listings on the market right now. On a market this slow, a single seller undercutting can set the price for hours, and getting out of a position takes patience.

At 1,820,000, it sits near the bottom of its own recent range of 1,666,000 to 2,499,000 — 4% of the way up. That is the end of the range where the risk-to-reward on a hold is best, provided the card is not falling for a reason.