Lewis Ferguson

Lewis Ferguson (93 Festival of Football: Path to Glory) is listed at 18,750 coins, but the last 6 completed sales cleared at a median of 16,500. That is a 14% gap between what sellers are asking and what buyers are actually paying. Buy at the asking price and you would need the market to move 14% in your favour just to get back to level, before EA's 5% cut.

The card is reasonably slow: roughly 1.4 sales an hour, with 6 buy-now listings on the market right now. That is enough turnover for a price to mean something and for a position to be exited without waiting days.

At 18,750, it sits near the bottom of its own recent range of 12,500 to 41,000 — 22% of the way up. That is the end of the range where the risk-to-reward on a hold is best, provided the card is not falling for a reason.