Raphinha

Raphinha (97 Festival of Football: Glory Hunters) is listed at 510,000 coins, but the last 26 completed sales cleared at a median of 450,500. That is a 13% gap between what sellers are asking and what buyers are actually paying. Buy at the asking price and you would need the market to move 13% in your favour just to get back to level, before EA's 5% cut.

The card is reasonably slow: roughly 4.9 sales an hour, with 8 buy-now listings on the market right now. That is enough turnover for a price to mean something and for a position to be exited without waiting days.

At 510,000, it sits in the upper half of its own recent range of 51,000 to 695,000 — 71% of the way up. Neither extreme, so the range on its own is not making the case either way.